Fighting in the Middle East continues to impact global energy markets
Households are being urged to prepare for another jump in energy costs this autumn, as fresh turmoil in the Middle East pushes up the wholesale price of gas. With the October price cap now under renewed pressure, experts say families should check where they stand now rather than waiting until the first cold snap to discover the true cost of heating their homes.
Some suppliers and analysts have already flagged that the increase could be sharper than previously expected. The warning follows a rapid move in the market, with wholesale UK gas prices rising around 15% in the past week as fighting in the Gulf unsettles global energy trading.
Because energy firms buy gas and electricity months in advance, sudden spikes can filter through into future tariffs – and the latest jump has added to the uncertainty for millions who are already watching every penny after earlier bill rises this year.
It is the latest in a series of cost shocks linked to tensions in the region, which have repeatedly rattled energy markets in 2026 and kept suppliers on edge.
EDF has now issued a stark update for customers by revising its own expectations for the October cap, indicating the rise could be bigger than earlier forecasts suggested. The firm has also pencilled in a further, smaller increase in January.
The looming October change comes after the price cap rose by 13% on July 1, taking the typical household bill to £1,663 a year. Anyone still on a standard variable tariff since that date could already be paying more than necessary – and may face another lift within months if the more pessimistic predictions prove accurate.
However, despite volatility in wholesale prices, comparison site Uswitch.com says there are still fixed deals available that sit noticeably below the current cap. Uswitch says the cheapest option on the market is a 15-month fixed tariff from Outfox Energy, priced at £1,424 a year for a typical household – £239 less than the cap.
The comparison site is urging customers on standard variable tariffs – who are most exposed to wholesale market swings – to consider acting sooner rather than risking a nasty surprise during the coldest part of winter.
Fuse Energy is listed as the next cheapest, with a 15-month fixed deal estimated at £1,453 a year, which Uswitch says is a 13% saving compared with the cap. The supplier also offers a 13-month fix priced at £1,471 a year, around 12% below the cap.
Outfox Energy also has a 12-month fixed tariff estimated at £1,517 a year, which would be roughly 9% cheaper than the current price cap. The figures are based on Uswitch data, correct as of 8am on July 14, 2026. Ben Gallizzi, energy expert at Uswitch.com, said: “With wholesale markets swinging on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, suppliers are already recalculating what October could look like – and the early signs point to another increase.
“Our advice to households is simple: don’t wait until you put the heating on to find out what it’s going to cost you. If you’re still on a standard variable tariff, you’re exposed to a market that’s currently moving in the wrong direction. Choosing a fixed deal now means you know exactly what you’ll pay through the coldest months. Run a quick comparison today, as the best rates on the market are changing quickly.”
