Andy Burnham’s government has been urged to step in and take action as shoppers at Sainsbury’s, Asda and elsewhere could be hit
Families shopping at Tesco, Aldi, Sainsbury’s, Lidl and other supermarkets are set to face a price shock. The cost of a typical grocery trolley is on course to reach £150 by next summer, industry experts say. Food prices have already soared by almost 40% in six years – from £100 in 2020 – and manufacturers are warning that another wave of increases is coming.
Food inflation is forecast to reach 3.9% by December, before surging to 6.4% next July, according to the Food and Drink Federation. Now Andy Burnham’s government is being urged to step in and take measures to ease the problem.
The warning comes as supermarkets are locked in a row over whether shoppers are really getting the bargains advertised on their shelves. Aldi has accused rivals of offering ‘fake’ or misleading discounts, arguing that eye-catching promotions and loyalty-card prices can make savings look bigger than they really are. The discount chain’s attack has added to growing pressure on supermarkets to prove that their special offers represent genuine savings for hard-pressed households.
And the row comes at a particularly difficult time for families, who are already paying substantially more simply to fill their shopping baskets. The FDF said a weekly shop that cost £100 in 2020 would now cost almost £140. By next summer, it could be approaching £150.
That means a family spending £100 a week on groceries six years ago could face an extra £2,600 a year if the same shop reaches £150. The latest increase is being driven by a combination of soaring energy and transport costs, extreme weather and disruption to global food supplies.
Food manufacturers say they have absorbed much of the pressure so far in an attempt to shield shoppers from price rises. But the industry says it is reaching the point where it can no longer shoulder the costs.
Karen Betts, chief executive of the Food and Drink Federation, said: “Food prices will rise this year, and we believe that rise will be sustained into 2027.” She said persistently higher energy, logistics and packaging costs, together with the impact of extreme summer weather, were putting further pressure on manufacturers. The latest figures show just how sharply the cost of key ingredients has risen.
Wheat is up 45 per cent, rice has increased by 60 per cent, sugar by 27 per cent and coffee by 22 per cent, according to the FDF. The price of cocoa has more than doubled.
Meanwhile, UK-grown produce has risen by almost 10 per cent over the past year, with droughts across Britain and Europe threatening further increases in the cost of fruit, vegetables and grains. Energy is also becoming a major headache for the industry.
Gas prices have more than doubled since February, while diesel prices have risen by 28.6 per cent since the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The FDF is calling on ministers to take action to prevent further pressure being passed on to shoppers.
It has called for targeted help with energy bills and a rethink of some costly regulations. The organisation estimates that five government regulations alone added £2billion to the industry’s costs in 2025.
The warning is particularly stark because the latest surge is expected to last considerably longer than previous food price shocks. Food inflation soared above 19 per cent after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but manufacturers say they are now facing a combination of problems that could keep prices elevated throughout 2027.
Ms Betts said: “By taking action, government can take the heat out of food inflation, help keep a lid on the cost of the weekly shop, and signal to hard-pressed food manufacturers that they take food security seriously.”
