Is history repeating itself? Reform’s group in the Senedd stands on a precipice

Helen Jenner is expected to be the next leader of Reform UK in Wales and she faces a huge challenge

16:30, 17 Sep 2026Updated 16:30, 17 Sep 2026

“It appears Reform have begun to fall apart” – they were the words of government minister Dafydd Trystan Davies, when, by luck would have it for organisers, he found himself on a stage for a live recording of a podcast just over two hours after a double whammy of bad news for Reform UK went public.

First, Dan Thomas resigned as leader after being arrested, second, a few minutes later it was confirmed Reform UK Senedd Member Sarah Cooper-Lessad had switched allegiance, from Reform UK to Plaid Cymru.

Cooper-Lessad herself echoed his sentiments, telling the BBC’s Walescast that her former party was “completely chaotic” and was “falling apart at the seams”. In terms of a first day back after the holidays, it’ll take some beating.

Mr Davies was making the point that had privately sustained many hours of debate to those interested in Cardiff Bay matters once Reform’s arrival in the Senedd was inevitable – what would Reform be like?

Those who were here for the Ukip days wondered aloud if it would be as chaotic. Nigel Farage’s earlier party Ukip surged into what’s now the Senedd in 2016, winning seven seats. But it started to fall apart quickly. The first to go was Mark Reckless, who defected to the Tories. He was followed by the man who had led them go into an election, Nathan Gill, who quit his seat after being ousted as leader by Neil Hamilton.

Mandy Jones was elected to replace Nathan Gill but never made it into the group because of a row over her staff. By the time David Rowlands left to join ex Ukippers Mark Reckless, Mandy Jones and Caroline Jones in the new Brexit Party in 2019, Neil Hamilton was the only Ukip AM left standing.

It was three years from jubilation to complete implosion with lurid allegations along the way.

Until Tuesday, Reform had avoided any disasters. The party brought new faces, new voices and new experience with them. They were making headlines with policy criticisms rather than internal disagreements.

Yes, their language had drawn headlines, they’d needed a helping hand with procedural matters in the Senedd, and there were rumours of some unhappiness in the ranks, but it had, until about 4.30pm yesterday been happening, broadly, behind closed doors.

But their first defection has now arrived even more quickly than Ukip’s in 2016. And with a leadership election set to happen. Helen Jenner, the current deputy leader, is widely expected to get the job and she will face a challenge to restore stability.

The party wants to be a professional outfit, an official opposition party. But now, once again, their name is being used in the same sentence as a police force. On top of that, their new leader will have different priorities and their own plans for a cabinet, priorities and approach.

That hope of professionalism has also been tested in the last 24 hours or so, as party figures, including some very senior ones have gone public with their thoughts on their defected member. Nothing undermines party unity like a public slanging match.

Today they had to draw up a leadership timetable, and give media briefings about that, not their opposition debates.

Plus, Ms Cooper-Lessad has been doing interviews in her new office today. Now a resident on the Plaid corridor, her new colleagues were popping in to introduce themselves but she wanted her chance to rebut what was being said about her personally, but also give some insight into how things were going in the Reform group office.

She is not, she says, the only one thinking about defections. She was not the only one uncomfortable with language being used. She expected Dan Thomas to be a more moderate voice from Reform UK, but he was “completely controlled by HQ”.

The much-discussed vetting procedure the party employed was only about media training and public speaking, not policy or ideology, she claimed. And that doesn’t mean she doesn’t have questions to answer.

Her political journey, as she phrases it, had already seen her go from being a Conservative to a Reform candidate. But now it emerges she voted to remain, that she wants more powers for Wales, and would campaign for yes in a Welsh independence referendum.

She admitted it was a good question as to whether she should have ever stood for Reform at all. But she did. The question now is whether it was all only a bid to get her into elected politics. She is, undoubtedly, someone who has brought a new life experience to the Senedd.

Being raised in care, away from where she was born is something she has lived experience of, and wants to make a difference to. As much as being an underrepresented voice is an asset, and her goals noble, I doubt the Reform voters of Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg would see that as enough of a reason of the greater good to forgive her for her defection.

2026 was the first test of this new electoral system which saw people select a party, and vote for a party. Those voters picked a Reform UK candidate and they no longer have one.

At a time when trust in politics and understanding in a new political system is so low, words like betrayal are not being thrown around lightly.

There is no mechanism for a by-election, so she will not be replaced, and she is not standing down so the next Reform candidate on the list doesn’t get a shot.

She says she has seen the light, the green and yellow of Plaid Cymru, rather than the teal of Reform UK.

Few expect she will be the last. But there are now questions swirling. Is she the first and only or will others follow suit? How does an ex-Reformer fit in in Plaid Cymru? Who will the new leader be, and will they be a voice independent of Reform HQ? What happens next for Dan Thomas?

Plenty of questions, not one the ones we expected to be asking a handful of days into a new Senedd term.