Home Climate ChangeNew Study: Climate Models Miss This Natural CO2 Source Hiding in Plain Sight

New Study: Climate Models Miss This Natural CO2 Source Hiding in Plain Sight

by David Jones

New Study: Climate Models Miss This Natural CO2 Source Hiding in Plain Sight
In a new study, Professor of Earth Sciences Dr. István Kovács emphasizes that climate models fail to account for CO2 emissions linked to tectonic processes or widespread mantle degassing. [some emphasis, links added]

Instead, the modern carbon budget accountants primarily consider CO2 emissions from the tiny number of Earth’s active volcanoes and ignore the non-negligible mantle-derived emission quantities from continental regions where no active volcanism exists.

So while on the one hand it is true that “the natural geological flux from Earth’s interior continues to play an essential role in regulating atmospheric CO2 over geological timescales,” on the other hand “our understanding is heavily biased towards areas of active volcanism.”

This active-volcanism-only bias severely underestimates natural contributions to the carbon cycle and consequently leads to inaccurate flux measurements.

Image Source: Kovács, 2026

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