The drivers of warming and glacier retreat in Antarctic climates are not aligned with linear increases in atmospheric CO2. [some emphasis, links added]
Scientists (Park et al., 2026) have assessed that over the last four decades, the patterns of air temperature, sea surface temperature, and glacial retreat near King George Island (just north of the northernmost tip of the Antarctic Peninsula) align with the negative to positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and natural ocean-atmosphere interconnections.
Phases of cooling and glacial advances are mixed with phases of warming and significant glacial retreat, but neither follows a linear rise nor trend in greenhouse gas emissions.
The scientists identify an overall decline in glacial retreat rates from the mid-1990s until 2015, when “cooler phases slowed retreat.”
The study “demonstrates how coupled fjord geometry-ocean-atmosphere interactions govern retreat behavior.”
Human activity governs neither warming nor glacier retreat.
Elephant Island is situated just 130 km northeast of King George Island. It is home to a large volume of penguins and seals.
A recent study (Atkinson et al., 2022) reported significant (approximately -0.75°C) surface cooling across Elephant Island (purple) since the 1990s, aligning with cooling along South Georgia, the Scotia Sea, and the overall West Antarctic Peninsula in recent decades.
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