A new political poll has found that four months on from May’s Senedd election, people are still backing Plaid Cymru. Meanwhile it shows there has also been a ‘Burnham bounce’
Four months out from May’s Senedd election, little has shifted in party vote intention(Image: Ben Birchall/PA Wire)
Plaid Cymru would be the biggest party in the Senedd and Westminster, a new political poll for Wales has shown. While their support is marginally down in both, compared to the last equivalent polling, this latest survey shows they have most voter support in both parliaments.
Reform UK is second in both followed by Labour. The poll, released at 6pm on Tuesday, comes on the day it was announced that Reform UK’s Wales leader Dan Thomas is standing down after being arrested by police. Live reaction here.
The poll, by ITV Cymru Wales/Barn Cymru was between September 7 and 13. The results for the Senedd are from 845 adults who were asked questions and the Westminster polling was of 1,102 adults.
It shows there has been a bounce for Labour since Andy Burnham took over at a Westminster level, with 10% more people saying they would vote for the party if there were a Westminster election tomorrow putting them at 18% vote share.
But at a Senedd Labour level there has only been a climb of 1%.
It means the vote share looks like this in the Senedd:
- Plaid Cymru: 32 (-1)
- Reform UK: 27 (-2)
- Welsh Labour: 13 (+1)
- Welsh Conservatives: 11 (+2)
- Wales Green Party: 7 (-1)
- Welsh Liberal Democrats: 5 (-1)
- Others 5 (+2)
And at Westminster:
- Plaid Cymru: 27 (-3)
- Reform UK: 19 (-7)
- Welsh Labour: 18 (+10)
- Welsh Conservatives: 16 (+4)
- Wales Green Party: 8 (-5)
- Welsh Liberal Democrats: 5 (-1)
- Other 7 (+2)
In terms of how people would vote in an independence referendum, 20% of those quizzed in this poll said they would vote yes in a referendum, which is two percentage-lower than previous and the lowest result in an ITV Cymru Wales/Barn Cymru poll since May 2023.
That comes on the day politicians from across the Senedd chamber forced the First Minister to defend a meeting he held with the leaders of Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday (September 15).
Each nation’s hopes in terms of independence were spelt out by Mr ap Iorwerth, John Swinney and Sinn Fein’s president Mary Lou McDonald and vice president Michelle O’Neill at a press conference held in Cardiff and organised by Plaid Cymru.
Mr ap Iorwerth made it clear in the meeting each nation was on their own timetable towards independence but by hosting such a high-profile event, he has been criticised for not focusing on issues like health and education.
When asked how the party leaders in Wales were performing, Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth saw a drop in the number of people who thought he was doing a good job in the poll compared to before he was First Minister, down from 44% to 36%,
Dan Thomas, who today resigned as Reform UK leader, had seen his approval fall from 26% to 20%.
Labour leader, Ken Skates, had a 15% rating.
The Green’s Welsh leader Anthony Slaughter’s approval dropped slightly from 19% to 14%, while the Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar held at 18%.
At a Westminster level, approval ratings for both Reform’s Nigel Farage, down from 36% to 26%, and the Green’s Zack Polanski fell from 31% to 21%.
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “Four months out from May’s Senedd election, little has shifted in party vote intention.
Plaid Cymru retains its lead over Reform, suggesting no penalty for time in power. First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth remains popular, with a net positive approval rating — a rarity for a Welsh First Minister in recent times.
“Perceptions of both the Welsh and UK Governments, however, remain poor. The more striking movement is in Westminster voting intention. Reform UK has lost over a quarter of its support at Westminster level, while Labour’s has more than doubled — though this isn’t a direct swap between the two.
Reform is losing ground to the Conservatives and Restore, while Labour is gaining from Green and Plaid supporters.
“Labour will take heart from generally positive views of Andy Burnham, likely fuelling their Westminster gains, but the party’s Senedd group may be less pleased: that boost shows little sign of transferring to devolved-level support during what should be a honeymoon period for the new Prime Minister.
“The result is an uneven pattern of multilevel voting, with 14% of progressive-bloc voters now splitting their preferences between Westminster and Senedd, compared with just 5% among conservative-bloc voters.”
