New analysis by planning consultancy Lichfields reveals the country may need more than 10,600 new homes each year until 2030 to meet demand.
This figure represents a 43 per cent increase on a like-for-like basis.
The February figures from the Welsh Government identified a need for around 8,700 homes annually between 2025 and 2030.
Gareth Williams, senior director at Lichfields, said: “Even the central estimate of 8,700 homes a year represents a significant uplift on recent delivery.
“On a comparable basis with the previous methodology, the annual requirement would exceed 10,600 homes.
“That gap between identified need and actual delivery is substantial.
“There is an urgent need for planning policy reform to ensure continuity of housing delivery where Local Development Plans are failing to progress.
“In our view, this should be a priority for whichever party forms the next Welsh Government after the May elections.”
The higher figure is based on how housing need data is calculated.
In 2019, Wales included a backlog of unmet need – currently 9,400 households – within the first five years of its housing plans.
Applying the same approach to the latest estimates raises the annual housing requirement to more than 10,600 homes per year.
Recent delivery falls far short, with an average of 5,000 new homes built annually and just 4,631 completed in 2024/25.
The analysis also notes that the current estimates exclude existing unmet need and should therefore be considered a minimum requirement.
Arwel Evans, planning director at Lichfields’ Cardiff office, said: “The latest household projections will form a key part of the evidence base for regional and Local Development Plans.
“If Wales is to move closer to meeting identified need, there will need to be confidence in land supply, up-to-date plans and a consistent policy framework to support delivery.”
