But what happens if no party wins a majority?
To win a majority a party will need 49 seats – something no party has been projected to achieve, according to polls in the run up to this election.
It is likely there will be a hung parliament – with parties forced to turn to coalition agreements to secure a majority.
Or, the largest party may choose to govern in a minority government – an option Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorweth has already expressed he would be open to.
The final YouGov MRP of the 2026 election predicted both frontrunners – Plaid Cymru and Reform UK – falling short of an overall majority with 43 and 34 seats respectively.
Coalitions are not an unfamiliar sight within the Senedd, with arguably the most prominent being the 2007-2011 “One Wales” coalition agreement between Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour.
While it has never happened in the Welsh Parliament it is also possible for the lower placed parties to form a coalition together if that allows them to form a majority.
Discussions of coalitions had already begun prior to the election, with party leaders expressing who they would, and perhaps more importantly would not, be willing to work with.
Anthony Slaughter, leader of the Wales Green Party, announced just days before the election that he would be willing to enter a coalition government to prevent Reform UK taking power.
The Welsh Conservatives are the only party to not rule out working with Reform UK.
In contrast, Welsh Labour, the Welsh Liberal Democrats, the Wales Green Party, and the Welsh Conservatives have all indicated that they would be open to working with Plaid Cymru post-election.
A minority government is formed by a political party which does not have an overall majority but chooses to govern alone.
Minority governments must negotiate and win the support of Senedd Members from other parties to pass legislation.
From the date of the election, the Senedd has just 28 days to nominate an MS as First Minister – meaning a new First Minister must be chosen by June 3.
If that doesn’t happen, the Senedd will be dissolved and another election will be held.
