Wednesday briefing: ​Why has Jackdaw been approved in the middle of a climate crisis? | Climate crisis

Good morning. After weeks of speculation, the secretary of state for energy and net zero, Miatta Fahnbulleh, approved drilling in the Jackdaw gasfield this morning. In a statement, published a few minutes before today’s First Edition, Fahnbulleh stressed that the government remains “resolute” in achieving net zero by 2050. It has also announced a new wealth fund that will invest tax revenues from North Sea oil and gas into low-carbon projects.

Even so, Fahnbulleh’s decision will be a monumental disappointment for climate campaigners (and I’d bet many readers of First Edition, too). So this morning’s newsletter is about two things: why the government approved Jackdaw, despite all of the arguments marshalled against it, and, in an attempt to strike a more hopeful note, what it can do to reduce the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels. That’s after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. UK news | During the Covid-19 pandemic, and government failures caused the virus to spread “like wildfire” among vulnerable and elderly people, a public inquiry has found.

2. Europe news | Italy’s government is sending 500 soldiers to Milan and vowed a “firm response from the state” after protests against the cost of living descended into clashes with police, vandalism and looting.

3. Ukraine | The US has resumed sharing intelligence with Kyiv about Russian missile strikes, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after a meeting with the US envoy Steve Witkoff in Norway.

4. Media | Television channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland are to close and the Radio 4 Extra radio station will be scrapped, as part of the corporation’s drive to cut £500m in costs.

5. UK news | RAF Typhoon fighters are to be used in efforts to protect Saudi Arabia from attack by Yemen’s Houthis, as western allies increase their intervention in the escalating conflict.

In depth: ‘Jackdaw’s impact on UK gas supplies will be minimal’

First, a quick recap: Jackdaw is a gasfield in the North Sea, 150 miles from Aberdeen. In 2022, the Conservative government gave consent to Adura, a joint venture between Shell and the Norwegian state giant Equinor, to produce gas there. Last year, this consent was blocked by campaigners who challenged it in a judicial review. The companies were forced to resubmit their applications with new information about the climate impact of the gas they would produce at Jackdaw. Fahnbulleh has now approved this application.

The other site that Fahnbulleh is also considering is Rosebank, a new oilfield 80 miles off the Shetland coast, although a decision on that has not yet been made. Jackdaw, a small gasfield, was always going to be an easier sell than the far larger Rosebank, which would produce seven times the carbon emissions if it was approved, and some environmental campaigners regard the sole approval of Jackdaw as an acceptable compromise.

Even so, Jackdaw’s impact on UK gas supplies will be minimal. Uplift and Greenpeace, the NGOs that challenged the 2022 consent, estimate that Jackdaw will provide just 2% of the UK’s gas over its lifespan, doing “next to nothing” to reduce reliance on foreign gas imports (though together with Rosebank, it could account for up to 10% of the UK’s gas production). Gas production in the North Sea is set to fall 99% by 2050. Even if the government approved new licenses for drilling in the North Sea (something Labour has said it won’t do), this figure would only decrease to 97%. “It’s geology determining this decline, not politics,” the Guardian’s environment editor, Fiona Harvey, tells me.

Why is the government approving Jackdaw?

Many arguments have been made in favour of drilling in the North Sea. Few have survived contact with reality. Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch have both claimed it will reduce oil and gas prices (it won’t) and improve energy security (this also doesn’t hold true). The most persuasive arguments for Jackdaw are that it will boost UK tax revenues, stem the loss of jobs from North Sea oil, and that since the UK already relies so much on natural gas, approving Jackdaw will have no meaningful impact on UK emissions. Put simply, if the UK isn’t getting gas from Jackdaw, we’ll simply buy it somewhere else. In its statement this morning, the government stressed that Jackdaw won’t prevent the UK from meeting its legally binding limits on carbon emissions.

But these arguments are also flawed. Only 27 direct, full-time jobs would be created by Jackdaw, and tax revenues from the North Sea are falling. The government estimates the industry will generate £4.1bn in tax revenue from 2025-2026, but much of this is negated by the £3.26bn it will spend on tax relief and support for the industry. And ultimately, approving more gas production at Jackdaw means the global supply of fossil fuels will increase. There’s a somewhat technical question about whether a surplus of fossil fuels leads to greater carbon emissions. As the Guardian’s energy correspondent, Jillian Ambrose, points out, emissions are driven by energy consumption, not energy production.

And yet there’s a reason that climate campaigners argue that governments and fossil fuel companies ought to “keep it in the ground!” Actively preventing the exploitation of fossil fuel assets – or “stranding” them, in the lingo – guarantees the prevention of future emissions. “When you interrogate each of the arguments in favour of Jackdaw, they reveal the power of the oil and gas lobby behind them,” Matthew Taylor, the Guardian’s environment correspondent, tells me.

If Jackdaw has no meaningful impact on UK carbon emissions, what would?

The answer to this is pretty straightforward: one of the best ways of reducing the UK’s emissions is by tackling its reliance on gas. About 85% of homes still rely on gas boilers, and just 2% of UK homes are heated with electric heat pumps, one of the lowest rates in Europe. Previous policies to increase insulation have been either short-lived or disastrous. The Green Homes Grant promised by Boris Johnson’s government in 2020 was cut after just six months. The Energy Company programme run by the last Conservative government left 98% of homes with external wall insulation needing work to resolve “major issues” (pdf) with damp and mould.

More recently, the UK’s warm homes plan introduced by Starmer’s government pledged to invest £15bn in upgrading 5m homes. Climate campaigners were somewhat sceptical about aspects of this plan, including its focus on green technologies rather than the more prosaic subject of loft insulation, and the government’s decision to quietly ditch a ban on gas boilers by 2035.

“Boiler companies and plumbers have made a very good living from slinging out gas boilers day after day,” Fiona says. (Anyone who has spoken to their plumber about installing a heat pump, only to be met with vehement grumbling, will probably be nodding their head at this point.) “These companies could start making heat pumps. They know how to do it. And they could train their installers.” This seems increasingly unlikely, particularly since ministers have recently been looking at slashing the heat pump subsidy for UK households, something that Treasury mandarins consider a “middle-class” luxury.

How else can the government address the loss of jobs in fossil fuel sectors?

Funny you should ask! The headline figure of 27 jobs should be treated with a degree of scepticism, because there will also be a wider impact on supply chains and roles created in temporary construction. Still, “even with the government allowing Jackdaw to go ahead, any job gains will be outweighed by long-term decline,” Fiona says. Nobody thinks Jackdaw will have a big impact on employment – not even North Sea oil workers themselves.

The more optimistic argument for creating a small number of jobs in an industry that is rapidly shrinking is that it will slow the pace at which the North Sea is shedding workers whose skills will be needed in the green transition. “Slowing the decline of employment in the North Sea would make for a smoother transition from fossil fuels to green activity,” Jillian says.

One way of boosting employment while decoupling UK homes from fossil fuels could be funding a massive retrofitting programme. Fiona recently covered the findings from a thinktank, E3G, that suggested a programme focused on insulating homes and investing in heat pumps would create about 50,000 new jobs spread across thousands of small businesses, and help alleviate the cost of living by slashing energy bills. “The problem is, this isn’t sexy, and there’s no big fossil fuel lobby behind it,” Matthew says. “But it would be the sane thing to do, to improve people’s energy security, reduce bills, and create good, well-paid jobs. It’s a no-brainer.”

What else we’ve been enjoying

• This fascinating report on how Brazilian pop fanbases are organising for Lula in the forthcoming presidential elections reminds us never to underestimate the power of teenage girls. Libby

• As someone with absolutely zero interest in attending “Europe’s largest super yacht show”, but a grisly fascination with its machinations, Sam Woolaston’s dispatch from Monaco proved ideal. Michael

• Bethan McKernan has interviewed survivors of the Aberfan disaster ahead of the 60th anniversary today, speaking to them about the years battling – unsuccessfully – for justice and the struggle to keep the memory alive. Libby

• Before this week, I’d never heard of a microdrama. Now I can’t escape chat about them, and honestly, I couldn’t agree more with Imogen West-Knights in her column on this burgeoning form of internet detritus. Michael

• It’s been signalled for a long time, but I find the shut down of the BBC Scotland broadcast channel really troubling in terms of the accountability of the Holyrood parliament. Libby

Sport

Football | Amid an ongoing state of civil unrest, Paris turned its attention to football as Vitinha’s late strike helped PSG to a 4-2 win against Barcelona.

Cricket | Arafat Minhas scored 59 and then took six for 40 as England were thrashed in their tri- series opener against Pakistan in Rawalpindi.

NBA | Our writers give their verdicts on the new season. Who will claim the title? And which youngster will make the superstar leap?

The front pages

“Burnham faces climate revolt after approval of North Sea gas drilling”, is the Guardian’s front page today.

The Telegraph has “Teachers face ban on Palestine badges”, Times leads with “Mahmood’s fight to save her migrant crackdown”. The FT runs “AI debt nerves trigger race for default insurance in case boom turns to bust”, the Mirror has “Tories’ cruel Covid car home ‘lie’”, and the i Paper says “Man City paid council £750,000 a year for stadium naming rights – that sold for £100m”.

On Prince Harry, the Sun splashes “I want to work it out … some people don’t”, the Mail writes “Oh, do put a sock in it Harry!”, and the Express has “Harry’s ‘some people don’t want it to work out’ dig”.

The Latest

Helen Haines loses leg after being attacked with car

A man has been charged after the Australian MP Helen Haines was allegedly attacked with a car outside her electorate office in the state of Victoria. Haines, who is an independent MP, has lost one leg as a result of the incident and surgeons were fighting on Tuesday to save the other leg. Police say 43-year-old Brendan Nugent has been charged with dangerous driving causing serious injury, intentionally causing serious injury and causing harm to a commonwealth public official. Annie Kelly speaks to Guardian Australia political editor Tom McIlroy.

Cartoon of the day | Ella Baron

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Ghent’s new €20m (£17m) design museum is a gleaming monument to recycling. Designed by London-based architects Carmody Groarke, it was built using everything from car windscreens, seaweed and old toilets to rubble dug straight from the building site.

Its bricks, many of which were pressed by the public during a two-day festival, are made of pulverised construction waste and hydrated lime. As well as saving two-thirds of the embodied carbon of a regular fired clay brick, they will continue to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere in the coming years, as the lime cures.

“We’re not claiming this is … a solution to the climate crisis,” says Sian Ricketts, Carmody Groarke’s sustainability lead. “But it is a sort of 82,000-brick proof of concept that you can do something different.”

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Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.