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The Super El Niño is becoming ‘unprecedented in strength’, new figures released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have revealed.
According to the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific – the epicentre of El Nino – could rise by as much as 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
For reference, the WMO declares an El Niño when the sea surface temperature anomaly in this region is just 0.5°C.
‘This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades,’ WMO Secretary–General Celeste Saulo said.
‘El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that.’
The Super El Niño is becoming ‘unprecedented in strength’, new figures released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have revealed
The Super El Nino will bring severe drought to some regions (brown on map), and heavy rainfall and flooding to others (green on map) between October and December
El Niño is part of a naturally occurring climate cycle called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which flips between hot and cold phases once every two to seven years.
During the hot, El Niño phase, the trade winds that normally carry warm waters away from South America towards Australia slow or even reverse.
This prevents cold water from welling up and leads to a buildup of hot water near the surface in the equatorial and tropical Pacific Ocean.
A very strong El Niño disrupts normal temperature and rainfall patterns across many regions.
It can bring severe drought to some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding to others, and increased heat across large parts of the world.
The latest outlook by the WMO warns that we are already witnessing extreme weather events amid this year’s El Niño.
What’s more, these are expected to multiply – and cascade – as El Niño intensifies.
In Europe, temperatures from November to January will likely be above average, while rainfall forecasts suggest we’ll see slightly wetter–than–normal conditions.
Africa will see warmer–than–average conditions, with increased rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa, and drier conditions across parts of southern Africa.
The latest outlook by the WMO warns that we are already witnessing extreme weather events amid this year’s El Niño. Pictured suface air predictions for October–December 2026
Above–average temperatures are forecast across much of Asia, while increased rainfall is expected from the Arabian Peninsula through Central and Eastern Asia.
In the Americas, much of North America is expected to experience warmer–than–average conditions.
Drier weather is forecast for northern South America, while parts of the continent’s southeast are likely to be wetter.
Finally, Australia is set to see above–average temperatures, with slightly increased rainfall.
While the update is fairly ominous, the WMO says there’s still time for many regions to prepare for the extreme climate event.
‘A powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster,’ Ms Saulo said.
‘We have the science, the forecasts and the early warning systems to save lives and protect livelihoods.
‘What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities.’
